The Labor Department has released its first jobs report of the year, covering January 2025. It shows that payrolls grew by 143,000 — somewhat lower than economists’ expectations of 175,000. On the other hand, payroll growth for the end of 2024 was revised up quite a bit. Over the past 3 months, payroll growth has averaged a very strong 234,000.

Instead, the most recent labor data shows unemployment low and steady, clocking in at 4%. Plus, job growth is still apparently moving at a healthy pace. Maybe official labor data isn't a reliable narrator of what's really happening, nor what's to come.