The Federal Reserve Bank of New York regularly attempts to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 ...

In four cases (illustrated by the heavier vertical lines), the easing cycle finished with an official recession. As markets ...

The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting plans for 2025 may face challenges from inflation and Trump's policies. Click here to read ...

Today, the jobless claims data again showed why mortgage rates are still elevated, confirming that the labor market isn’t ...

Household survey data shows recessionary trends with rising unemployment, decreasing employment, & longer duration ...

The Federal Reserve Bank of ... the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months using the difference between the 10-year and three-month Treasury rates. Its most recent analysis ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates ...

But there is an important catch. Central banks generally make rapid interest rate cuts when they are worried about the ...

The graph below uses historical FDIC ... Typically, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates during a recession to spur growth and reduce unemployment. Because CD rates follow the federal ...

Many economists and others have felt relief over continued GDP growth. But data like this suggest that the foundation of the economy is cracking.

A chart showing the Federal funds target rate having ... sign of a recession is becoming more likely. Several reporters have tried to dig into the same basic question here: If the Fed thinks ...

They say housing leads the economy in and out of a recession ... rates to help maintain employment and finish ongoing projects. The key points of this report indicate that the Federal Reserve ...